Announcements

2010 Predictions for the San Juan Islands Economy

By Bill Watson and Victoria Compton

As we in San Juan County enter 2010, many people are wondering what will happen this year in our local economy.  While in some ways it’s anyone’s guess, a few trends do suggest themselves.

First let’s hope that as the world and national economies stabilize, they do not take another significant dip (a “W” instead of a “V” recovery).  The national financial services sector may be the determining factor whether we have another dip or not, as we watch the national and consumer debt levels and the value of the dollar. 

If these sectors stabilize (the “V” scenario), the housing market should solidify with prices holding and sales volume starting to pick up.  The Washington State unemployment rate should flatten and begin falling.   

The national economy will determine much of our local real estate market recovery by determining if off-island buyers feel comfortable enough to invest in second and retirement homes.  These same “off-islanders” are needed to restart our single-family home construction recovery. 

Tourism may remain slow as individuals recover some of their lost wealth and regain their comfort with vacationing. Construction and tourism are the top two drivers for our local economy, and our top two employment sectors.  Over 27% of all state and local retail tax dollars in San Juan County are generated by tourists.  Construction alone generated nearly $160 million in retail sales for San Juan County.  As these sectors recover, local municipal spending will also recover.

Best-case scenario is stabilization of the local economy with a slight recovery in the traditional industry sectors and thereby the local “public” revenue streams.

But, what is recovery?  Do we simply want to return to the economic state and methods that led to the recent economic collapse, or are we interested in taking this opportunity to expand beyond the traditional drivers of our economy?  Our local economic challenges in the future include recovering our traditional industries (single family home construction, real estate, retail, tourism and the municipal sector) while we begin to increase the year-round sustainability of the local economy. 

First, to recover jobs in our traditional industry sectors we’ll need to continue importing dollars by expanding and better targeting tourism and real estate promotion.  This will maintain our competitive high ranking as a tourism and second home destination. 

Second, we need to increase our self-sufficiency and reduce our imports.  We can do this by increasing and improving our inter-island transportation and storage facilities, our communication and by enabling businesses to better fulfill our needs with local products and services.  Increasing business-to-business awareness and “shop locally” values applied to businesses will all contribute to strengthening our economy and community.

We can diversify the local economy beyond construction and tourism, and maintain agriculture as a locally sustainable industry sector.  As we improve these sectors of our economy, new jobs will be created. This will increase the local “multiplier effect” which keeps more local dollars circulating in local hands.  We can also become more open to expanding businesses that will improve year-round sustainability, and target businesses that complement the islands’ values.

Lastly, we can protect our community’s natural resources and beauty while streamlining our local land use regulations to make the rules and processes effective and efficient.  All of these efforts will help enable our community of businesses and citizens to maintain their quality of life and sustainability.

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23 December 2009

Shop Wisely, Shop Locally           

Victoria Compton

It doesn’t seem like such a big deal, hopping aboard the ferry to spend a day shopping on the mainland.  What fun to check out the scintillating decorations, to spend some money at the mall, to have lunch away from home.

But let’s pencil out the math.  You’ll spend $29.18 for ferry fare if you use a commuter book, $35.05 if you don’t.  $2.50 a gallon for gas; figure at least a few gallons burned.  $10-20 for lunch.  Average cost per trip:  $54.62.  You’ll need to add that cost to what you spend when you get to the mall.   

Okay, hold onto that figure and let’s work through the rest of the economics of your shopping trip. 

When you spend a dollar locally, at least 33 cents^* will stay here to be reinvested in our community – partly through direct expenditures and partly through taxes that pay for governmental services.  When you spend a dollar off-island, not one penny of it comes back to the islands. 

That means you’ll be working a little harder back home to pay for the fact that 33% less money will have the chance to work its way back to you.  People who rely on the goods or services that you provide won’t have as much money to spend with you. 

You may start to earn less because the business you work for can’t afford to pay you as well because they’re trying to compete with mainland businesses and can only cut costs by cutting wages.  In addition, as revenue from sales tax is reduced, local government has only one other source to raise revenue – through raising taxes.

As more money is spent off-island, less money is available locally to support and create jobs, and for community improvement and development.  Local business people will also have less to spend on local charitable giving. 

All of this can cycle viciously – the worse it gets, the worse it will get.  This year – more than any other year in recent memory – it’s critical to consider more than the few dollars you think you might save by traveling to the mainland to shop. 

Neighbors, I ask you to consider what you want your community to look like.  Consider your friends who work alongside you here.  Consider the message you want your kids to learn this holiday season.  Consider the reason you may have moved here originally – to join the community of neighborly people who make the islands such a wonderful place to live.  A community you’d like to see continue to thrive and improve.

Please – shop wisely this season.  Shop locally.

 ^* While some studies have shown that shopping locally keeps as much as 70% of each dollar spent within the community, a rate of 33% is appropriate for the San Juan Islands as most retail products are produced elsewhere and shipped here.  Of course, for locally produced products, the rate of dollars remaining in the community is much higher, in some cases even exceeding 70%.  For more information:  http://localfirstaz.com/downloads/procurement-matters.pdf, http://www.andersonvillestudy.com/AndersonvilleSummary.pdf, http://www.ptvermont.org/publications/HomegrownEconomy/Homegrown%20Economy.pdf

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San Juan County Economic Development Council Announces Staff Changes

The San Juan County Economic Development Council (EDC) is pleased to announce the hiring of two new employees.

The EDC welcomes Victoria Compton as their new Executive Director. Victoria has been an island resident since 1989, working as the advertising director of the Journal of the San Juan Islands, and as the founder of At Home Magazine. She has also worked in New York City as the marketing director of a giftware manufacturing company, as a PR agency owner, and as the director of Westcott Bay Institute on San Juan Island. In years past, she served as the vice president of the San Juan Islands Chamber of Commerce board of directors and on the board of the San Juan Islands Business Association (now the Visitors’ Bureau). Victoria starts with the EDC/ARC on December 1st, 2009.

The EDC, in partnership with the San Juan County Agricultural Resources Committee, welcomes Peggy Bill as the EDC’s new ARC Coordinator. Peggy brings twenty years of professional experience advancing land conservation, natural resource management and innovative market approaches to conservation in the Puget Sound region. Some of her work experience includes the Cascade Land Conservancy, King County, and the Washington Department of Ecology. Locally, she has served on the Agricultural Resources Committee, the Lopez Community Land Trust, and the San Juan County Land Bank. Peggy’s family has been involved in agriculture on Lopez Island for decades. She starts with the EDC/ARC on December 1st, 2009.

Please join us in welcoming both Victoria and Peggy and lending them your support as they begin their new roles. We also wish to thank Bill Watson and Eliza Buck for their outstanding contributions to the EDC and ARC respectively. We wish them well as they begin their future endeavors.

The EDC and ARC will host an open house on Wednesday, December 16, 2009 from 3-5 PM. All are welcome to drop into the EDC/ARC office at 540 Guard Street, Suite 110 and say hello/good-bye. Refreshments will be served.

The San Juan County Economic Development Council (EDC) advocates to diversify and strengthen the economy of San Juan County and to promote and preserve the overall quality of life of islanders. The EDC is the county’s primary source for island business-related information. The EDC strives to enable business success by linking resources, rendering assistance, and improving conditions for local business.

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